Analysis of Causality between Tourism and Economic Growth Based on Computational Econometrics

نویسندگان

  • Liangju Wang
  • Huihui Zhang
  • Wanlian Li
چکیده

To investigate the causal relationship between China’s domestic tourism and economic growth, this paper performs co-integration analysis and Granger causality test by making use of annual time series data from 1984 to 2009. Co-integration analysis indicates that there are long-term and stable equilibrium relationships between the development of China’s domestic tourism and economic growth. The results from the ECM model indicate that there are short-term disequilibrium relationship between the development of China’s domestic tourism and economic growth. An adjustment mechanism from short term to long term in the relationship between the development of China’s domestic tourism and economic growth can be found in the ECM model. In addition, bidirectional Granger causality between China’s domestic tourism and economic growth is demonstrated. The development of China’s domestic tourism is the Granger cause of economic growth, China’s economic growth is the Granger cause of development of domestic tourism as well. Our findings imply that China may enhance its economic growth by strategically strengthening the tourism industry while not neglecting the other sectors which also promote growth.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Core Inflation and Economic Growth, Does Nonlinearity Matters? A Nonlinear Granger Causality Analysis

T his empirical analysis endeavors to trace out the causal nexus between core inflation and economic growth from the perspective of twenty worlds’ leading economy with the help of the nonlinear Granger causality approach by using time series data from 1981 to 2016. Based on nonlinear Granger causality results, it has been found that there is unidirectional casualty running from core ...

متن کامل

Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: an Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis

This paper examines empirically the tourism impact on the long-run economic growth of Greece by using the causality analysis among real gross domestic product, real effective exchange rate and international tourism earnings. A multivariate autoregressive VAR model is applied for the examined period 1960:Ι – 2000:IV. The results of cointegration analysis suggested that there is one cointegrated ...

متن کامل

Exploring the Trade Openness, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Relationship in Iran by Bayer and Hanck Combined Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This paper aims to investigate the direction of causality between economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness in case of Iran for the period 1967–2012. We apply the newly developed combined cointegration test proposed by Bayer and Hanck (2013). Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to determine the direction of causality between these three variables. The result of Bayer-Ha...

متن کامل

Is the Economic Growth Regime in Iran Wage-led or Profit-led? 

This study investigates the relationship between factor income distribution and aggregate demand in the context of the Post-Keynesian school, using data from Iran over the period 1346-1393. To this end, profit share and GDP growth are used as proxies for factor income distribution and demand growth, respectively. The results of the cointegration analysis based on the ARDL approach show that pro...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • JCP

دوره 7  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2012